Week 7 Project

Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true.

In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations.

The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces however it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Choose a Data Set.

Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm (Links to an external site.)

In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths

Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example,

Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009.

Preliminary Calculations

Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the mean, median, sample/population standard deviation, n = number of states that submitted data for each the data sets. You will have FOUR tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You could have 52 numbers for each data set. You may have less data numbers if not all states/territories submitted data values.)

Summary Table for _________Mean Median Standard Deviation n (Number of States who submitted Data)

Hypothesis Testing

With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate):

Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 5000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance.

Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 2500 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance.

Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to—

Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis

Give the value of the test statistic

Report the P-Value

Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)

Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.

4. Make your OWN Claim (You are completing ONE more Hypothesis Test)

Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis.

a) Pick one data set: Births, Deaths, Marriages OR Divorces.

b) Write a claim about the data set.

c) For your claim—

Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis

Give the value of the test statistic

Report the P-Value

Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)

Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.

Rubric

Week 7 Project: Part IIWeek 7 Project: Part IICriteriaRatingsPtsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data5 ptsProficient. Student correctly computes all 4 Preliminary Data Tables.4 ptsAbove Average. Student correctly computes 3 Preliminary Data Tables.3 ptsAverage. Student correctly computes 2 Preliminary Data Tables1 ptsNeeds Improvement. Student correctly computes 1 Preliminary Data Tables.0 ptsNo Effort. No Preliminary Data Tables were completed are all are incorrect.5 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing20 ptsProficient. Correctly completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and reports the p-value.16 ptsAbove Average. Correctly completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.14 ptsAverage. Correctly completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.10 ptsNeeds Improvement: Correctly completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.0 ptsNo Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed or none were completed correctly.20 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis10 ptsProficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems.8 ptsAbove Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems.7 ptsAverage. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems.5 ptsNeeds Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem0 ptsNo Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given or all were incorrect.10 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test10 ptsProficient. Student correctly creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.8 ptsProficient. Student correctly creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.7 ptsAverage. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.5 ptsNeeds Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid.0 ptsNo Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test.10 pts

Total Points: 45

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