Type of probability

use excel please and not minitab!! A. Uncertainty is likely to be a factor in many organizational problems. Please identify one specific decision-making situation in your organization where this is the case. Answer the following questions: (Please briefly describe the organization and the context before you address the issues posed)

1.Describe how uncertainty has been explicitly considered during decision-making in the situation. If it has not been considered explicitly describe the reason for this and describe how you would explicitly consider uncertainty in this situation.

2.Discuss what type of probability (classical empirical or subjective) and what type of probability distribution (Binomial Poisson Normal or other) could apply in the context to address the situation. Justify your choice.

3.Describe how you would approach addressing the uncertainty situation using your knowledge of probability and probability distributions. This may be in the form of an experiment to collect some necessary data. It should include a discussion of how you would evaluate the data and how the results of that evaluation could help you take steps to address the uncertainty in the decision-making context.

B. Uncertainty is not only a factor in business but in other fields as well. Choose one recent article from popular news sources that contain some reference to probability or a probability distribution. You may search any popular news service (such as Google news or Yahoo news) using the keywords “probability” or any of the probability distributions to find articles. Answer the following questions:

1.What event is the probability distribution associated with?

2.What type of probability distribution applies to the data discussed in your article? Discuss the features of the data (and data collection) that identify the distribution. Remember that if you choose binomial you should be able to clearly identify the (only) 2 possible outcomes of each trial. If Poisson you should be able to clearly identify the area of opportunity and the event that “occurs” a certain number of times in that area. It is very possible that your distribution is normal (if it deals with the distribution of a numerical variable) or some other distribution (which you are not required to identify).

3.Discuss who is impacted by the outcome of the event (call this organization or these people the “subjects”). Evaluate whether the author has discussed how the subjects will address (or have addressed) the uncertainty. If so comment on whether you agree with the way the uncertainty is addressed. If not discuss other methods that the subjects could address the uncertainty.

4.Discuss whether you think the subjects understand the underlying probability or are acting using some other criteria.

C. For the following business situations please identify whether the probability distribution to be used to model the situation is Binomial or Poisson and for each problem justify your choice of the probability distribution. Solve each problem using Minitab software.

1.A bank has had to repossess 100 homes. Fifty of these repossessed homes are expected to have market values that are less than the outstanding balance on the mortgage. An auditor randomly selects 10 different repossessed homes and records the number of homes which have market values less than the outstanding balance of the mortgage. What is the probability that all of the audited homes will have a market value less than the outstanding balance of the mortgage? (Source: Unknown – 325HM?)

2.Worldwide golf ball sales total more than $1 billion annually. One reason for such a large number of golf ball purchases is that golfers lose them at a rate of 4.5 per 18-hole round (“Snapshots” usatoday.com January 29 2004). What is the probability that a.Zero balls will be lost in an 18-hole round? b.Five or less balls will be lost in an 18-hole round? c.Six or more balls will be lost in an 18-hole round? (Source: LSKB Fifth edition)

3. Historically the probability that a library book will be returned at the university library in one week is .40. A random sample of 10 books is taken in one week.

a. What is the probability that 8 books will be returned?

b. Assuming this result is observed what conclusion could the head librarian make about the accuracy of the historical rate of return? (Source: Unknown – 327HM?)

4.John Thurgood founded a company that translates Chinese books into English. His company is currently testing a computer-based translation service. Since Chinese symbols are difficult to translate John assumes the computer program will make some errors but then so do human translators. The computer error rate as promised by the computer program developer is no more than three errors per 400 words. Suppose John randomly selects a 1200-word passage. If 15 errors are found in the 1200-word passage what would you conclude about the accuracy of the computer program developer’s claim? Why? (Assume that it is possible for the computer to make more than one error in translating each word in the passage). (Source: Unknown – 224GSFS?)

Requirements: Parts A and B one page each with reference page for b. part c needs to have the excel screenshot with the answers

For all Binomial or Poisson distribution problems in Part C use Minitab to solve the problems. Be sure to include the Minitab results as a part of your solution (this should be a screen shot placed in-line with your answer to each question not in an appendix). For parts A and B limit your answers to one page each. Follow APA format for parts A and B including separate title pages for each and a references section for part B with a reference to your article. For part C include a title page. State and highlight your answers to each question separate from your Minitab printouts. Parts A and B will count 10% each and C will count 80% to the total assignment grade. For all Binomial or Poisson distribution problems in Part C use Minitab to solve the problems. Be sure to include the Minitab results as a part of your solution (this should be a screen shot placed in-line with your answer to each question not in an appendix).For parts A and B limit your answers to one page each. Follow APA format for parts A and B including separate title pages for each and a references section for part B with a reference to your article. For part C include a title page. State and highlight your answers to each question separate from your Minitab printouts.Parts A and B will count 10% each and C will count 80% to the total assignment grade.